In this guide
Prediction markets centred on science and technology draw participants with exceptional domain knowledge—laboratory scientists, software engineers, and technology correspondents who interpret technical breakthroughs with greater speed than typical market participants. These venues provide substantial rewards for specialised expertise and insider understanding.
Active Science & Technology Prediction Markets (2026)
Space Exploration
- SpaceX Starship reaches orbit with payload: ~72-78%
- Artemis Moon landing in 2026: ~35-42%
- SpaceX Mars mission launch before 2030: ~55-62%
- Commercial space station operational in 2026: ~28-34%
Artificial Intelligence
- AGI claimed by major lab before 2028: ~22-28%
- AI system passes ARC-AGI benchmark (100%): ~38-44%
- EU AI Act High-Risk classification of LLMs: ~62-68%
Biotechnology & Medicine
- CRISPR gene therapy approved for new indication in US: ~65-72%
- GLP-1 drug market exceeds $150B annual revenue: ~55-62%
- Alzheimer's treatment showing 50%+ disease modification: ~28-34%
Clean Energy
- Nuclear fusion net energy gain sustained for 60+ seconds: ~35-42%
- Global solar capacity exceeds 5 TW: ~65-70%
- Solid-state battery in commercial EV by major automaker: ~38-44%
Edge Sources in Science/Tech Markets
- Preprint servers (arXiv, bioRxiv): emerging research findings prior to formal peer review
- Patent filings: technological advances frequently show up in patent records ahead of public announcements
- Regulatory pipeline: FDA, EMA approval schedules for pharmaceutical and biotech products
- Engineering conference presentations: roadmaps and development plans from SpaceX, NASA, and leading technology firms
FAQ
- How do science prediction markets resolve?
- These markets depend on independently verifiable information: company announcements, published research in peer-reviewed journals, official regulatory statements, or established news organisations (AP, Reuters).
- Are there niche science markets not listed on PolyGram?
- PolyGram features prominent science and technology markets. For specialised or obscure topics, Manifold Markets (using play money) offers a wider range of user-generated markets.
- Do researchers trade prediction markets about their own field?
- Absolutely — and they typically possess the strongest informational advantage. Perspectives shared within the research community (at seminars and symposia) frequently move market valuations before broader awareness spreads.