In this guide
What Is a Prediction Market?
Prediction markets are financial venues where traders exchange contracts tied to the outcome of forthcoming events. The contract's market price embodies the collective assessment of the probability that a particular event will materialise. PolyGram operates as a UK-based prediction market platform offering exposure to a broad spectrum of international occurrences.
How Do Prediction Markets Work?
At their core, prediction market contracts pose a straightforward question: will Event X occur before Date Y? Consider this illustration: "Will the Labour Party secure victory in the forthcoming UK general election?" Two distinct contracts become available for trading:
- YES: Should Labour prevail, this contract settles at $1.00
- NO: Should Labour fail to prevail, this contract settles at $1.00
When the YES contract trades at $0.65, market participants are pricing in a 65% likelihood of Labour's victory. You might purchase YES if you believe the odds underestimate their chances, or acquire NO if you reckon the opposite. Correct predictions yield gains; incorrect ones result in capital loss.
Prediction Markets vs Traditional Betting
- Absence of overround: Traditional bookmakers embed a profit margin into their odds — prediction markets operate without this feature. The combined value of YES and NO contracts approximates $1.00
- Early exit capability: You retain the option to close out your position at any point prior to final settlement
- Full transparency: Market participants enjoy unrestricted access to pricing data and the complete order book
- Distributed intelligence: Contract valuations synthesise insights from a vast network of market participants — frequently delivering superior accuracy relative to conventional polling methodologies
Types of Prediction Markets
Political Markets
Electoral contests, public confidence measurements, legislative outcomes, shifts in political leadership. These categories dominate trading activity and liquidity across major platforms including Polymarket versus competing venues.
Sports Markets
Game results, championship victors, individual athlete metrics, divisional standings.
Crypto Markets
Bitcoin valuation milestones, blockchain network enhancements, cryptocurrency investment product approvals, governmental intervention scenarios.
World Event Markets
Macroeconomic metrics, geological phenomena, technological breakthroughs, cultural award ceremonies.
Are Prediction Markets Legal in the UK?
Prediction markets occupy an ambiguous legal position within UK jurisdiction. The Gambling Commission has neither granted formal licensing nor issued explicit prohibition. Operators such as PolyGram function through decentralised settlement mechanisms, positioning themselves distinctly from conventional gambling infrastructure.
How Accurate Are Prediction Markets?
Academic investigation repeatedly demonstrates that prediction markets surpass specialist analysts and conventional opinion polling in forecast precision. Polymarket's track record encompasses accurate forecasting of the 2024 US presidential election, numerous contests across continental Europe, and significant cryptocurrency developments—frequently weeks or months in advance of actual outcomes.