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What price will Ethereum hit October 12-18?

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "What price will Ethereum hit October 12-18?" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

↓ 2,400 100% ↓ 2,500 100% ↓ 2,500 100% ↓ 2,400 39% Volume: $460K Liquidity: $516K Closes: 19 Oct 2026
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What price will Ethereum hit October 12-18?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
↓ 2,400100%
↓ 2,500100%
↓ 2,500100%
↓ 2,40039%
↑ 2,50028%
↓ 2,3004%
↑ 2,6002%
↑ 2,7001%
↓ 2,2001%
↓ 2,1001%
↓ 2,0001%
↑ 3,2000%
↑ 3,1000%
↑ 3,0000%
↑ 2,9000%
↑ 2,8000%
↓ 1,9000%
↓ 1,8000%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, what price will ethereum hit october 12-18? stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. What price will Ethereum hit October 12-18?

Methodology

This page compares What price will Ethereum hit October 12-18? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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Related Topics

Ethereum (ETH) Prediction Markets