Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks whether total commitments for Credible’s curated raise on MetaDAO surpass the title’s threshold before the sale closes on 31 August 2026. Credible’s fundraise launched live on 13 July 2026 via MetaDAO’s Solana-based futarchy platform, with traders pricing a 99% chance the target is hit [2][3][8].

Historical MetaDAO raises show strong completion rates: the Ocean Protocol sale raised $2.20M in August 2024, while the broader MetaDAO ICO secured $12.1M across one private round [4][7]. A separate Polymarket market on Laso Finance’s MetaDAO sale priced a 91% probability of exceeding $1M, yet settled on actual commitments rather than implied odds, highlighting Polymarket’s reliance on decimal pricing versus Kalshi’s implied-probability format and stricter KYC gates [1]. While Betfair and Smarkets use decimal odds and lower fees for unKYC’d users, Kalshi’s US-regulated model limits access but offers regulatory clarity absent on Polymarket’s crypto pre-markets.

Traders should monitor Credible’s official sale page for the “committed” figure, which serves as the sole resolution source regardless of later refunds [2]. Key catalysts include MetaDAO’s governance announcements and any Solana network upgrades affecting transaction throughput during the raise window. Recent news confirms the July 13 launch date and Solana integration, with no public indication of delays [8]. If the displayed commitment total hits the threshold before the deadline, the market resolves YES even if commitments are later withdrawn.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We read Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.