Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: EWI (-1.5) vs ROSSMANN Centaurs (+1.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% |
Market context
ROSSMANN Centaurs vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS in the Prime League 1st Division Group A is a best-of-three League of Legends match, and the available match record shows E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS won 2-0[1]. On that basis, a crowd-implied **0% YES** price on a market that resolves to ROSSMANN Centaurs is directionally consistent with the reported result, although prediction markets can still differ from outright results if settlement has not yet processed or if the venue’s data feed is incomplete[1].
For comparison across platforms, Polymarket-style markets quote **implied probability**, while Betfair and Smarkets usually present **decimal odds** with a commission layer that changes the effective price a trader receives. In a match with a reported 2-0 finish, a “ROSSMANN Centaurs” contract would typically trade near zero on any venue with live settlement confidence, but the exact display can diverge because of fees, liquidity, and whether the platform requires stricter identity checks before trading or withdrawal. On exchanges such as Betfair or Smarkets, the final executable price can also move differently from a binary yes/no market because backers and layers are matched directly rather than through a simple crowd percentage.
The key catalyst is therefore not the fixture itself, but whether the result has been formally accepted for settlement before the 23:45 UTC window closes. Traders usually watch the official match schedule, any league postponement notice, and whether the event was fully played rather than voided, because the contract pays 50-50 if the game is cancelled, ends in a tie, or slips more than seven days beyond the scheduled date. The practical cross-platform angle is that a zero-per-cent quote on Polymarket does not necessarily mean the same thing as a near-evens decimal price on a bookmaker-style screen; it mainly reflects how each venue translates a finished or likely-finished result into tradable terms.
Sources: 1
Methodology
This page compares LoL: ROSSMANN Centaurs vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Group A specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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