Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs All Gamers (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-2.5) vs All Gamers (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TYLOO (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TYLOO (+2.5) | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TYLOO (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
TYLOO and All Gamers will contest a lower bracket quarterfinal in the Valorant Champions Tour China Stage 2 Playoffs on 20 August 2026, with the match scheduled to commence at 4:00 AM ET. The best-of-three format determines advancement in the regional competition. The settlement window closes at 14:00 ET on the same day, allowing roughly ten hours for the match to conclude and results to be confirmed. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 100% YES, indicating near-unanimous expectation that the match will occur as scheduled.
Historical precedent in VCT China suggests fixture stability during regular playoff windows, though scheduling disruptions have occurred during international tournaments or when teams face visa complications. TYLOO's recent performance trajectory and roster consistency provide baseline context for assessing match likelihood; the organisation has maintained competitive standing in Chinese Valorant throughout 2026. All Gamers' participation status and any recent roster changes warrant monitoring, as these factors have occasionally triggered fixture delays in regional qualifiers. Polymarket's binary settlement (TYLOO or All Gamers) differs from Kalshi's approach on esports markets, where some books offer postponement-specific outcomes; Betfair and Smarkets typically provide decimal odds formats that require conversion to implied probability, whereas Polymarket displays probabilities directly.
Traders should monitor official VCT China announcements regarding schedule confirmations, team health disclosures, or venue changes through Riot Games' regional channels. The 14-day postponement window (through 3 September 2026) provides buffer for rescheduling, though matches rescheduled beyond the settlement deadline would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. KYC requirements vary across platforms—Polymarket operates with lighter verification in certain jurisdictions compared to Kalshi's regulated framework, affecting liquidity and available position sizes on this specific market.
Methodology
This page compares Valorant: TYLOO vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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