Tunisia vs. Netherlands - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Tunisia and the Netherlands will meet in their final Group F fixture of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, with kick-off set for 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, 25 June. The match resolves solely on the score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shoot-outs. Current market data implies a 9% probability for an exact score outcome, a figure that reflects the Netherlands’ strong form (1-1-0 in last five) versus Tunisia’s defensive fragility (conceding 3.0 goals per match on average) [1][4].

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup group stages with a 9% implied probability often align with matches where one side dominates possession but struggles to convert, or where both teams adopt cautious tactics late in the tournament. Tunisia’s recent 5-1 loss to Sweden and 5-0 defeat to Belgium highlight their vulnerability to high-scoring outcomes, yet their 3 wins in 18 finals matches suggest they can occasionally frustrate stronger opponents [1][9]. Platforms diverge here: Polymarket and Betfair typically quote decimal odds (e.g., 11.00 for 9%), while Kalshi and Smarkets emphasise implied probability percentages, and fee structures vary from 0% on Polymarket to up to 5% on Kalshi, with KYC requirements stricter on regulated US books like Kalshi [1].

Traders should monitor final line-up announcements and any weather updates for Arrowhead Stadium, as rain could slow the pitch and reduce goal frequency. Hervé Renard, Tunisia’s coach, has stressed defensive organisation ahead of this clash, which may further suppress scoring [5]. Recent reports confirm Tunisia completed training sessions on 24 June with no injury concerns, while the Netherlands’ squad remains intact [7]. For real-time odds shifts, ESPN’s live match centre provides the most granular data on in-play probabilities, which often diverge from pre-match implied probabilities on platforms like Betfair versus Kalshi [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Tunisia vs. Netherlands - Exact Score specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.