Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 June 2026 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, the United States men’s national team will face Türkiye in a FIFA World Cup Group D match, with the market resolving solely on the 90-minute result. The two sides have never met at a World Cup, though their five prior encounters since 2010 show a perfectly balanced record: two wins each and one draw, with both teams scoring in seven of those matches[2][4]. Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup group games with such tight head-to-head parity often settle at low probabilities—typically 3–7%—when the implied draw likelihood exceeds 30%, mirroring patterns seen in similar 2022 and 2018 group-stage fixtures where defensive caution dominated[2].

Traders should monitor Pochettino’s likely rotation decisions after the USMNT’s two consecutive wins, as squad fatigue could reduce attacking intensity and increase the chance of a low-scoring draw[2]. Türkiye, desperate for a result to advance, may press early, but the US side’s group-stage discipline suggests they will prioritise containment. Recent coverage on ESPN confirms both teams sit at 2–0–0 in Group D, heightening the stakes for Türkiye while the US can play with minimal pressure[1]. Platform comparisons matter here: Polymarket displays decimal odds (e.g., 20.00 for a 5% outcome) while Kalshi and Betfair emphasise implied probability and KYC requirements, and fee structures diverge significantly—Polymarket charges 0% maker fees but 2% taker fees, whereas Smarkets caps at 2% total and requires full identity verification[1][2].

The settlement window closes at 02:00 UTC on 26 June 2026, with any postponement keeping the market open until completion. Given the 5% current probability, the market implies a narrow exact score is unlikely, favouring “Any Other Score” as the dominant outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.