Will SpaceX's valuation hit 2026 by June 30?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

SpaceX completed its IPO on 12 June 2026, listing on NASDAQ under ticker SPCX with an implied valuation of $1.75 trillion after raising $75 billion. The market in question asks whether Nasdaq Private Market’s NPM Price will reach or exceed a specified threshold by 30 June 2026, with crowd-implied probability currently at 100% YES. This reflects confidence that the post-IPO valuation, already near $1.75 trillion, will sustain or grow further before the settlement window closes.

Historical valuation benchmarks frame this certainty: Morningstar’s discounted cash flow model values SpaceX at $780 billion, roughly 48% below its private market price of $1.5 trillion [1], while Aswath Damodaran’s post-prospectus analysis estimates equity value at $1.3 trillion, rising to $1.5–$2 trillion with IPO liquidity and S&P 500 inclusion [3]. The IPO itself priced shares at $135, yielding a $1.77 trillion valuation [4], and Forge Global confirms the $1.75 trillion figure post-listing [7]. These cases suggest the 100% YES probability is anchored in concrete, publicly verified data rather than speculation.

Traders should monitor Nasdaq Private Market’s daily NPM updates, released at 1:00 PM ET on trading days [5], and watch for secondary market activity, bond issuance impacts, or Starlink revenue disclosures that could shift valuation. Yahoo Finance notes SpaceX stock has struggled to regain post-IPO gains, with a $25 billion bond outstanding [9], while Barron’s warns the IPO may carry a valuation approaching $2 trillion [6]. Platforms diverge here: Polymarket uses decimal odds and minimal KYC, whereas Kalshi and Betfair rely on implied probability with stricter identity checks and higher fees, affecting liquidity and access for this specific market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Will SpaceX's valuation hit 2026 by June 30? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.