Paraguay vs. Australia - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The FIFA World Cup Group D clash between Paraguay and Australia at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara is a decisive final group-stage match, with both nations needing a result to secure qualification. This single game determines whether more markets—such as total cards, exact score, or clean sheets—will settle as active or void, directly impacting the 7% YES probability on the “More Markets” prediction.

Historically, similar Group D finales in 2018 and 2022 saw draw outcomes priced between +110 and +130, with both teams qualifying in 91% of system models, mirroring today’s implied probability. Traditional books like Ladbrokes and Paddy Power offer decimal odds (15-8 for Paraguay, 29-10 for Australia), while Polymarket and Kalshi convert these to implied probabilities (58% and 42% respectively), creating divergent pricing. Fee structures also vary: Smarkets charges 2% per win, whereas Betfair’s 5% commission applies only to net profits, altering trader returns on this tight market.

Traders must monitor the 10 p.m. ET kick-off and live card counts, as total cards over 2.5 is priced at -165, suggesting a high-risk, high-card environment. Nestory Irankunda’s shot volume (at least two shots at -185) and Paraguay’s clean sheet likelihood (-190) are key catalysts. Recent analysis from Doc’s Sports notes the draw at +120 as a strong value, reinforcing the 7% YES threshold for more markets to settle.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Paraguay vs. Australia - More Markets specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.