Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hamas’s weapons are the core issue in the Gaza ceasefire track: the group has repeatedly tied any disarmament discussion to Israeli withdrawal, guarantees over future security, and, in some accounts, progress towards Palestinian statehood. Reuters reported in April that Hamas would not even start disarmament talks without assurances of a full Israeli withdrawal, while later reports said it had signalled only conditional readiness to surrender heavy weapons, not a blanket handover of all arms.[1][2] That makes the market’s 0% crowd-implied price consistent with the public record so far: there is no confirmed Hamas announcement accepting the market’s required commitment to disarm in Gaza by the deadline.[1][5][7]

The closest historical analogue is not a clean surrender but a phased, externally supervised decommissioning concept, which has surfaced in U.S.-backed Gaza plans and mediator proposals this year.[7][11][16] Those frameworks envisage staged removal of rockets, explosives and other heavy weapons first, followed by lighter arms or personal weapons, with verification by international bodies; Hamas has been reported as resisting total disarmament and insisting on conditions before any transfer of weapons.[2][4][14][15] On platforms, that matters because Polymarket and Kalshi display probabilities directly, whereas Betfair and Smarkets are usually read through decimal odds and exchange fees; for a binary event priced near zero, fee drag and minimum liquidity matter more on exchange books than on fee-free probability displays.

For traders, the main catalysts are any formal Hamas statement, mediator readouts from Qatar, Egypt or Turkey, and any U.S.-backed ceasefire or Board of Peace announcement that includes explicit wording on “decommissioning” or “disarmament”. Reuters and AP have both described ongoing talks around the Trump-linked Gaza framework and a new technocratic transition plan, but they also show Hamas continuing to set preconditions rather than committing outright.[1][7] The practical watchlist is whether Hamas’s acknowledged leadership issues a public, unqualified pledge to relinquish or dismantle military capability in Gaza; short of that, conditional language, phased offers, or third-party summaries are unlikely to satisfy this market’s resolution standard.[1][2][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.