0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

Zero ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz would signal a total collapse of the June 17 US–Iran agreement, which explicitly guaranteed immediate commercial navigation and required the US to lift its naval blockade by 19 July. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, reflecting market confidence that the memorandum of understanding will hold despite recent volatility. Historical precedents show that while traffic dropped 90% following the deal’s signing and hit zero on ten of the last nineteen days in early April, the strait reopened with 25 commercial vessels on a single Thursday, marking the highest volume since April [1][2]. This rebound suggests that temporary closures do not equate to sustained zero-transit periods, making a full-day zero count by July 2026 an extreme outlier.

Traders should monitor the 19 July US blockade-lift deadline and Iran’s compliance with restoring pre-war traffic levels within the same timeframe, as failure here could trigger renewed closures [2]. Recent reports confirm Iran reversed its reopening after security incidents, causing traffic to cease entirely, but the MOU remains the primary stabilising factor [9]. Watch for announcements from AXSMarine or Kpler on daily transit counts, as IMF PortWatch data is the sole settlement source; any divergence between real-time trackers and PortWatch could create settlement ambiguity. The strait remains classified as closed by live monitors, with transits near zero against a normal of ~60 per day, yet the 60-day toll-free window adds a short-term buffer against total shutdown [5].

Platform mechanics diverge sharply here: Polymarket displays decimal odds (e.g., 0.00) while Kalshi, Betfair, and Smarkets use implied probability percentages, affecting how the 0% YES is perceived. Fee structures also vary—Polymarket charges no trading fees but has higher gas costs, whereas Kalshi imposes a 1% fee on winnings and requires full KYC, limiting access compared to Smarkets’ lower-barrier model. These structural differences influence liquidity depth on such binary geopolitical events, with regulated books like Kalshi often showing tighter spreads on low-probability outcomes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.