How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz has resumed steady merchant transit following a period of near-standstill caused by the Iran war, with 55 cargo-laden ships confirmed passing through as US Central Command declared safe passage intact [3][5]. This market tracks the finalized count of container, tanker, and bulk vessels reported by IMF Portwatch for the week of 6 July 2026, where the crowd assigns an 84% implied probability to the “YES” outcome.

Historical volatility in this chokepoint frames the current odds; traffic previously ceased entirely after Iran reversed its reopening of the waterway, only to recover cautiously once an interim peace deal was implemented [4][9]. While recent data shows inbound and outbound voyages returning to multi-voyage daily levels, the 84% probability reflects confidence that the current recovery is sustained rather than a temporary spike, contrasting with the near-zero volumes seen during peak conflict weeks [1][2].

Traders should monitor the finalisation of IMF Portwatch data for 12 July, as settlement occurs immediately once the next day’s point arrives, and watch for any announcements regarding the interim peace deal’s implementation timeline [7][10]. Platform mechanics diverge sharply here: Polymarket displays decimal odds (roughly 5.88 for 84%) with lower fees but stricter KYC, whereas Kalshi and Betfair use implied probability percentages with higher regulatory hurdles but clearer fiat onboarding, affecting how liquidity pools across these books for this specific oil-sector event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.