Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are currently trickling through the Strait of Hormuz after a brief reopening, with commercial traffic suspended again as tensions between the US and Iran persist. The strait remains effectively closed, with only 25 commercial vessels crossing on 18 June 2026, the highest daily count since the initial disruption, yet still far below the hundred-plus passages typical of normal operations[3][4].

Historically, similar disruptions in 2026 saw transit calls drop precipitously from an average of 120 to single digits, with war-risk surcharges and missile threats driving carriers to reroute or halt operations[1][5]. The current 89% implied probability that traffic will return to normal by December 2026 reflects a belief in a diplomatic thaw, yet comparable cases show recovery often stalls for months despite ceasefire announcements, as routing uncertainty lingers[8]. Traders should note that platforms diverge sharply here: Polymarket offers decimal odds with minimal KYC and lower fees, whereas Kalshi and Betfair require identity verification and charge higher spreads, affecting the net yield on this high-probability bet.

Key catalysts include the 8 April 2026 US-Iran ceasefire’s durability and any new announcements on war-risk insurance coverage, which expired recently[8]. A recent NBC News graphic confirms traffic is picking up but remains well shy of normal levels, suggesting the 60-transit threshold for market resolution is a steep climb[4]. ShipFinder data shows daily transits ranging from 4 to 14 in mid-June, highlighting the volatility traders must monitor as the settlement window closes in 2026[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.