Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes. This market refers to the tennis match between Gonzalo Bueno and Igor Ribeiro Marcondes in the Swedish Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
This page compares Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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