Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Liberec: Kilian Feldbausch vs Harold Mayot | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Liberec: Kilian Feldbausch vs Harold Mayot Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Liberec: Kilian Feldbausch vs Harold Mayot Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Liberec: Kilian Feldbausch vs Harold Mayot Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Liberec: Kilian Feldbausch vs Harold Mayot Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Liberec: Kilian Feldbausch vs Harold Mayot Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Liberec: Kilian Feldbausch vs Harold Mayot Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Liberec: Kilian Feldbausch vs Harold Mayot Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Liberec: Kilian Feldbausch vs Harold Mayot Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Liberec: Kilian Feldbausch vs Harold Mayot Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Liberec: Kilian Feldbausch vs Harold Mayot Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Liberec: Kilian Feldbausch vs Harold Mayot Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Liberec: Kilian Feldbausch vs Harold Mayot Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Liberec: Kilian Feldbausch vs Harold Mayot Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Liberec: Kilian Feldbausch vs Harold Mayot Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of liberec: kilian feldbausch vs harold mayot. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Kilian Feldbausch and Harold Mayot in the Liberec, originally scheduled for July 27, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to …
Methodology
We read Liberec: Kilian Feldbausch vs Harold Mayot from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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