Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Clement Chidekh | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Clement Chidekh Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Clement Chidekh Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Clement Chidekh Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Clement Chidekh Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Clement Chidekh Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Clement Chidekh Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Clement Chidekh Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Clement Chidekh Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Clement Chidekh Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Clement Chidekh Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Clement Chidekh Game Spread +/-3.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Clement Chidekh Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Clement Chidekh Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Clement Chidekh Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Clement Chidekh Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Clement Chidekh. This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Gea and Clement Chidekh in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ar…
Methodology
This page compares US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Clement Chidekh specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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