Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Estoril Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Blockx Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Blockx Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Blockx Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Blockx Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Blockx Match O/U 21.5 | 98% |
| Estoril Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Blockx Match O/U 23.5 | 89% |
| Estoril Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Blockx Match O/U 22.5 | 87% |
| Estoril Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Blockx | 67% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Estoril Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Blockx Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Estoril Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Blockx Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 5% |
| Estoril Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Blockx Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 5% |
| Estoril Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Blockx Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Estoril Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Blockx Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Estoril Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Blockx Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Estoril Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Blockx Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of estoril open: kyrian jacquet vs alexander blockx. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Kyrian Jacquet and Alexander Blockx in the Estoril Open, originally scheduled for July 22, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
This page compares Estoril Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Blockx specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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