Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Set 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to swedish open, qualification: igor ribeiro marcondes vs lautaro midon. This market refers to the tennis match between Igor Ribeiro Marcondes and Lautaro Midon in the Swedish Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
We read Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Trade Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes … on Kalshi Alternative
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →