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Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Completed Match 100% Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria Set 2 O/U 8.5 100% Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria Set 2 O/U 9.5 100% Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria Set Handicap +/-1.5 100% Volume: $85K Closes: 5 Oct 2026
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Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Completed Match100%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria Set 2 O/U 8.5100%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria Set 2 O/U 9.5100%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria Set Handicap +/-1.5100%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria Game Spread +/-3.5100%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria0%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria Set 1 Winner0%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria Set 2 Winner0%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria Total Sets: O/U 2.50%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria Set 1 O/U 8.50%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria Set 1 O/U 9.50%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria Set 1 O/U 10.50%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria Set 2 O/U 10.50%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria Match O/U 21.50%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria Match O/U 22.50%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria Match O/U 23.50%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to japan open tennis championships, qualification: shintaro mochizuki vs jaime faria. This market refers to the tennis match between Shintaro Mochizuki and Jaime Faria in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This…

Methodology

This page compares Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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Related Topics

Tennis Prediction Markets