Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Croatia Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. This market refers to the tennis match between Marco Trungelliti and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Croatia Open, originally scheduled for July 15, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to …
Methodology
This page compares Croatia Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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