Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Valentin Vacherot vs Alexander Blockx Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Valentin Vacherot vs Alexander Blockx Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Valentin Vacherot vs Alexander Blockx Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Valentin Vacherot vs Alexander Blockx Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Valentin Vacherot vs Alexander Blockx | 76% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Valentin Vacherot vs Alexander Blockx Set 2 Winner | 58% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Valentin Vacherot vs Alexander Blockx Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Valentin Vacherot vs Alexander Blockx Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Valentin Vacherot vs Alexander Blockx Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Valentin Vacherot vs Alexander Blockx Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Valentin Vacherot vs Alexander Blockx Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Valentin Vacherot vs Alexander Blockx Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Valentin Vacherot vs Alexander Blockx Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Valentin Vacherot vs Alexander Blockx Game Spread +/-1.5 | 21% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships: Valentin Vacherot vs Alexander Blockx Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to japan open tennis championships: valentin vacherot vs alexander blockx. This market refers to the tennis match between Valentin Vacherot and Alexander Blockx in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market wil…
Methodology
We read Japan Open Tennis Championships: Valentin Vacherot vs Alexander Blockx from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Trade Japan Open Tennis Championships: Valentin Vacherot v… on Kalshi Alternative
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →