Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 90% |
| O/U 40.5 | 84% |
| Toledo O/U 20.5 | 82% |
| O/U 30.5 | 79% |
| O/U 32.5 | 79% |
| O/U 34.5 | 78% |
| O/U 36.5 | 78% |
| O/U 38.5 | 77% |
| O/U 42.5 | 74% |
| Toledo O/U 23.5 | 73% |
| O/U 46.5 | 71% |
| Spread -1.5 | 69% |
| Spread -2.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 67% |
| O/U 48.5 | 63% |
| Spread -3.5 | 61% |
| Spread -4.5 | 60% |
| O/U 50.5 | 59% |
| San Diego State O/U 20.5 | 59% |
| Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| O/U 54.5 | 54% |
| San Diego State O/U 23.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| O/U 52.5 | 52% |
| O/U 56.5 | 51% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 49% |
| Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| Spread -8.5 | 44% |
| Spread -9.5 | 42% |
| Spread -10.5 | 39% |
| O/U 58.5 | 38% |
| O/U 60.5 | 37% |
| Spread -11.5 | 36% |
| O/U 62.5 | 36% |
| Spread -12.5 | 34% |
| O/U 66.5 | 34% |
| O/U 68.5 | 31% |
| Spread -14.5 | 30% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| Spread -17.5 | 23% |
| O/U 64.5 | 23% |
| Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 15% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| O/U 70.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -13.5 | 6% |
Market context
Market consensus: 90% chance of san diego state vs. toledo. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game between San Diego State and Toledo, scheduled for September 26 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego State" if San Diego State…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $764K.
Methodology
We read San Diego State vs. Toledo from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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