Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 40.5 | 100% |
| O/U 42.5 | 100% |
| O/U 44.5 | 100% |
| O/U 46.5 | 100% |
| O/U 48.5 | 100% |
| O/U 50.5 | 100% |
| O/U 52.5 | 100% |
| O/U 58.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -22.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -24.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -25.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -26.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -12.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -15.5 | 100% |
| San Jose State O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| San Jose State O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| San Jose State O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| USC 1H O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -16.5 | 100% |
| O/U 41.5 | 100% |
| O/U 43.5 | 100% |
| O/U 45.5 | 100% |
| San Jose State O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| San Jose State O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| San Jose State O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| USC 1H O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| San Jose State O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| San Jose State O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Spread -4.5 | 99% |
| Spread -5.5 | 99% |
| Spread -6.5 | 99% |
| San Jose State 2H O/U 8.5 | 99% |
| Spread -20.5 | 97% |
| Spread -17.5 | 95% |
| Spread -21.5 | 84% |
| Spread -1.5 | 78% |
| O/U 60.5 | 66% |
| O/U 64.5 | 55% |
| Spread -39.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| O/U 72.5 | 50% |
| O/U 74.5 | 50% |
| O/U 78.5 | 50% |
| O/U 80.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| USC O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| San Jose State 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| USC 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| USC 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| USC 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 47.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| O/U 62.5 | 49% |
| O/U 76.5 | 49% |
| O/U 61.5 | 49% |
| O/U 70.5 | 48% |
| Spread -27.5 | 37% |
| Spread -24.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| Spread: USC (-38.5) | 2% |
| San Jose State vs. USC | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -12.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 0% |
| San Jose State 1H O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| San Jose State 1H O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| San Jose State 1H O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| USC 1H O/U 28.5 | 0% |
| USC 1H O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| USC 1H O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| USC 1H O/U 31.5 | 0% |
Market context
San Jose State vs. USC. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 0% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-08-29T19:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $137K.
Methodology
We read San Jose State vs. USC from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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