Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 88% |
| O/U 37.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 83% |
| O/U 39.5 | 82% |
| Spread -0.5 | 76% |
| O/U 41.5 | 76% |
| SMU O/U 23.5 | 76% |
| Spread -1.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| Spread -2.5 | 74% |
| O/U 43.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 69% |
| Spread -3.5 | 68% |
| Spread -4.5 | 66% |
| O/U 45.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| Spread -5.5 | 63% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 63% |
| SMU O/U 26.5 | 63% |
| Spread -6.5 | 62% |
| O/U 47.5 | 62% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 61% |
| O/U 49.5 | 57% |
| SMU O/U 29.5 | 57% |
| SMU 2H O/U 12.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Spread -7.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 55% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| Spread -8.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| Virginia O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| SMU 1H O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| Spread -9.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| O/U 51.5 | 51% |
| Virginia 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Virginia O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Virginia O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Virginia O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| SMU 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Virginia vs. SMU: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| SMU 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| SMU 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| SMU Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| SMU Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| SMU Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Virginia vs. SMU: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Virginia vs. SMU: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| SMU 1H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| SMU 2H O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| Virginia 2H O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| SMU 2H O/U 16.5 | 46% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| O/U 53.5 | 45% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 45% |
| SMU O/U 32.5 | 45% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 44% |
| Virginia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 43% |
| Spread -13.5 | 42% |
| Virginia 1H O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| Virginia vs. SMU: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 41% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 41% |
| Virginia O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| SMU O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| O/U 55.5 | 40% |
| Virginia O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| Virginia vs. SMU: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 40% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 39% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| Spread -14.5 | 38% |
| Virginia vs. SMU: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 38% |
| O/U 57.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 36% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 36% |
| Spread -16.5 | 35% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 35% |
| SMU O/U 35.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Spread -17.5 | 31% |
| O/U 59.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 30% |
| O/U 61.5 | 28% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 1H Moneyline | 27% |
| Spread -20.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| Virginia vs. SMU | 24% |
| Spread -0.5 | 24% |
| O/U 63.5 | 23% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 23% |
| Spread -1.5 | 22% |
| O/U 65.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| Spread -2.5 | 21% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| O/U 67.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Spread -4.5 | 15% |
| Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| O/U 69.5 | 12% |
| O/U 71.5 | 11% |
| Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Spread -8.5 | 9% |
| O/U 73.5 | 9% |
| O/U 75.5 | 8% |
| Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
Market context
Market consensus: 88% chance of virginia vs. smu. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game between Virginia and SMU, scheduled for October 17 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Virginia" if Virginia win the game. This market…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $93K.
Methodology
This page compares Virginia vs. SMU specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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