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Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Group Stage" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Match Winner 93% Game 1 Winner 87% Game 2 Winner 86% Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Resilience (+1.5) 75% Volume: $94K Liquidity: $432K Closes: 13 Aug 2026
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Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
93% 7% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
93% 7% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner93%
Game 1 Winner87%
Game 2 Winner86%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Resilience (+1.5)75%
Any Player Ultra Kill57%
First Blood in Game 2?56%
Any Player Rampage55%
Both Teams Beat Roshan53%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?53%
Ends in Daytime52%
Ends in Daytime52%
Ends in Daytime52%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks51%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?41%
Both Teams Beat Roshan40%
Both Teams Beat Roshan40%
Any Player Ultra Kill37%
Any Player Ultra Kill37%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks32%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks32%
O/U 2.5 Games24%
Any Player Rampage12%
Any Player Rampage12%

Market context

The Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Group Stage prediction market currently prices this outcome at 93% YES. This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between TEAM VISION and Team Resilience in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 12 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve …

Methodology

This page compares Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Group Stage specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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