Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 86% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Yahia Fofana: 2+ saves | 75% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 74% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 60% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 60% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 57% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots | 55% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 51% |
| Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots | 51% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Egil Selvik: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jens Hauge: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Amad Diallo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Egil Selvik: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Egil Selvik: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots | 46% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots | 45% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots | 45% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 44% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots | 42% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals + assists | 42% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 41% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 5+ shots | 41% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 5+ shots | 40% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ shots | 40% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots | 38% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ shots | 33% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 33% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots | 30% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots on target | 25% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 24% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 21% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Egil Selvik: 5+ saves | 7% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Oscar Bobb: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ shots | 1% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 90% probability to côte d'ivoire vs. norway - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Côte d'Ivoire and Norway, scheduled for June 30 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We read Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway - Player Props from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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Trade Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway - Player Props on Kalshi Alternative
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