Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 96% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 56% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Patrick Pentz: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Unai Simón: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Unai Simón: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ goals | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ goals | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ goals | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ assists | 48% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ assists | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 47% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Patrick Pentz: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Patrick Pentz: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Unai Simón: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Pedri: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Paul Wanner: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Rodri: 3+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots on target | 45% |
| Patrick Pentz: 5+ saves | 44% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Konrad Laimer: 3+ shots | 44% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 43% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots on target | 42% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Pedri: 4+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 36% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Unai Simón: 2+ saves | 34% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 32% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 28% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 24% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 24% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 24% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Pedri: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 21% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Rodri: 2+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals | 15% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 14% |
| Rodri: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Rodri: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ shots on target | 11% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Rodri: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ shots on target | 9% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shots on target | 9% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 9% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 9% |
| Romano Schmid: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Pedri: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Rodri: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots | 4% |
| Pedri: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Rodri: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots | 3% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Rodri: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots | 3% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 2% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Rodri: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
The Spain vs. Austria - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 96% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Austria, scheduled for July 2 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We read Spain vs. Austria - Player Props from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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