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Spain vs. Austria - Player Props

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "Spain vs. Austria - Player Props" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots 96% Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots 88% Dani Olmo: 1+ shots 76% Alex Baena: 1+ shots 74% Volume: $234K Liquidity: $1.5M Closes: 2 Jul 2026
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Spain vs. Austria - Player Props

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
96% 4% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
96% 4% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots96%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots88%
Dani Olmo: 1+ shots76%
Alex Baena: 1+ shots74%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots66%
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ shots64%
Rodri: 1+ shots62%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ shots57%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists56%
Pedri: 1+ shots55%
Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists52%
Patrick Pentz: 3+ saves49%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots49%
Unai Simón: 4+ saves48%
Unai Simón: 5+ saves48%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists48%
Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ goals48%
Carney Chukwuemeka: 3+ shots48%
Carney Chukwuemeka: 4+ shots48%
Konrad Laimer: 2+ goals48%
Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ goals48%
Konrad Laimer: 2+ shots48%
Romano Schmid: 2+ goals + assists48%
Romano Schmid: 3+ goals + assists48%
Romano Schmid: 4+ goals + assists48%
Michael Gregoritsch: 3+ shots48%
Michael Gregoritsch: 5+ shots48%
Romano Schmid: 2+ assists48%
Alex Baena: 4+ shots on target48%
Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target48%
Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ shots on target48%
Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ shots on target48%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target48%
Nico Williams: 4+ shots on target48%
Paul Wanner: 1+ shots on target48%
Paul Wanner: 2+ shots on target48%
Pedri: 3+ shots on target48%
Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ shots on target48%
Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ shots on target48%
Saša Kalajdžić: 3+ shots on target48%
Konrad Laimer: 2+ goals + assists48%
Konrad Laimer: 3+ goals + assists48%
Konrad Laimer: 4+ goals + assists48%
Paul Wanner: 1+ goals + assists48%
Paul Wanner: 2+ goals + assists48%
Paul Wanner: 3+ goals + assists48%
Paul Wanner: 4+ goals + assists48%
Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ goals48%
Michael Gregoritsch: 4+ shots48%
Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ shots on target48%
Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ shots on target48%
Dani Olmo: 4+ shots on target48%
Konrad Laimer: 2+ shots on target48%
Marko Arnautovic: 3+ shots on target48%
Romano Schmid: 2+ shots on target48%
Saša Kalajdžić: 4+ shots48%
Saša Kalajdžić: 5+ shots48%
Paul Wanner: 1+ assists48%
Paul Wanner: 2+ assists48%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals47%
Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target47%
Pedro Porro: 2+ shots on target47%
Patrick Pentz: 2+ saves47%
Patrick Pentz: 4+ saves47%
Unai Simón: 3+ saves47%
Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists47%
Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists47%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists47%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists47%
Marcel Sabitzer: 3+ goals + assists47%
Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goals + assists47%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists47%
Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists47%
Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists47%
Pedri: 3+ goals + assists47%
Pedro Porro: 3+ goals + assists47%
Paul Wanner: 3+ shots47%
Rodri: 3+ goals + assists46%
Nico Williams: 3+ shots on target45%
Patrick Pentz: 5+ saves44%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists44%
Konrad Laimer: 3+ shots44%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals43%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots43%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target42%
Nico Williams: 2+ shots on target42%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target41%
Nico Williams: 1+ shots on target41%
Alex Baena: 2+ shots40%
Pedri: 4+ goals + assists39%
Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ shots39%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target37%
Pedro Porro: 1+ shots36%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists36%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots36%
Unai Simón: 2+ saves34%
Romano Schmid: 1+ shots34%
Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ shots33%
Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target32%
Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target31%
Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shots28%
Marko Arnautovic: 4+ goals + assists28%
Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots28%
Rodri: 2+ shots26%
Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists26%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals25%
Konrad Laimer: 1+ shots25%
Paul Wanner: 1+ shots25%
Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ shots25%
Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ shots24%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target24%
Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists24%
Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots24%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots24%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists23%
Alex Baena: 3+ shots23%
Dani Olmo: 3+ shots23%
Pedri: 2+ shots22%
Pedri: 1+ assists22%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots22%
Pedri: 1+ shots on target21%
Pedri: 1+ goals + assists21%
Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ shots21%
Dani Olmo: 1+ assists20%
Alex Baena: 1+ goals20%
Pedro Porro: 1+ goals + assists20%
Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ shots20%
Dani Olmo: 4+ shots20%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists19%
Pedro Porro: 2+ goals + assists19%
Dani Olmo: 5+ shots19%
Dani Olmo: 2+ shots18%
Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists18%
Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goals + assists18%
Marko Arnautovic: 2+ goals + assists18%
Pedri: 2+ goals + assists18%
Romano Schmid: 2+ shots18%
Alex Baena: 4+ shots18%
Alex Baena: 1+ assists17%
Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists17%
Rodri: 2+ goals + assists17%
Rodri: 1+ shots on target16%
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals + assists16%
Romano Schmid: 1+ shots on target16%
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals15%
Paul Wanner: 2+ shots15%
Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ shots15%
Konrad Laimer: 1+ shots on target15%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals14%
Rodri: 1+ assists14%
Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target14%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target14%
Rodri: 2+ shots on target14%
Romano Schmid: 1+ goals + assists14%
Marko Arnautovic: 3+ shots14%
Alex Baena: 5+ shots14%
Saša Kalajdžić: 3+ shots14%
Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target13%
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ shots on target13%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals + assists13%
Rodri: 1+ goals + assists13%
Konrad Laimer: 2+ assists13%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals12%
Pedri: 1+ goals12%
Pedro Porro: 2+ shots12%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target11%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ shots on target11%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals10%
Rodri: 1+ goals10%
Dani Olmo: 3+ shots on target10%
Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ goals10%
Pedri: 3+ shots10%
Rodri: 3+ shots10%
Marcel Sabitzer: 3+ shots10%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists9%
Pedro Porro: 1+ assists9%
Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ shots on target9%
Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shots on target9%
Pedri: 2+ shots on target9%
Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target9%
Romano Schmid: 3+ shots9%
Marko Arnautovic: 4+ shots9%
Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals + assists9%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists8%
Pedro Porro: 3+ shots8%
Pedri: 4+ shots7%
Marcel Sabitzer: 4+ shots7%
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ assists6%
Pedro Porro: 4+ shots6%
Rodri: 4+ shots6%
Marko Arnautovic: 5+ shots6%
Romano Schmid: 1+ assists6%
Marcel Sabitzer: 5+ shots6%
Alex Baena: 2+ assists5%
Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists5%
Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists5%
Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ goals5%
Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals5%
Romano Schmid: 1+ goals5%
Konrad Laimer: 1+ assists5%
Pedro Porro: 1+ goals4%
Nico Williams: 2+ shots4%
Pedri: 2+ assists4%
Alex Baena: 2+ goals4%
Rodri: 4+ goals + assists4%
Paul Wanner: 1+ goals4%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals3%
Nico Williams: 1+ shots3%
Dani Olmo: 2+ assists3%
Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ assists3%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists3%
Pedro Porro: 2+ assists3%
Rodri: 2+ assists3%
Dani Olmo: 2+ goals3%
Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ goals3%
Nico Williams: 3+ shots3%
Nico Williams: 4+ shots3%
Paul Wanner: 2+ goals3%
Romano Schmid: 2+ goals3%
Marko Arnautovic: 2+ goals2%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals2%
Nico Williams: 1+ goals2%
Marko Arnautovic: 2+ assists2%
Nico Williams: 1+ assists2%
Nico Williams: 5+ shots2%
Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goals1%
Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goals1%
Nico Williams: 2+ goals1%
Nico Williams: 3+ goals1%
Pedri: 2+ goals1%
Pedro Porro: 2+ goals1%
Nico Williams: 2+ assists1%
Alex Baena: 3+ goals1%
Dani Olmo: 3+ goals1%
Marcel Sabitzer: 4+ goals + assists1%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists1%
Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists1%
Pedro Porro: 4+ goals + assists1%
Rodri: 2+ goals0%

Market context

The Spain vs. Austria - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 96% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Austria, scheduled for July 2 at 3:00 PM ET.

Methodology

We read Spain vs. Austria - Player Props from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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