Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots | 93% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| César Huerta: 1+ shots | 50% |
| César Huerta: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Armando González: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Armando González: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Armando González: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Armando González: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Armando González: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Carlos Acevedo: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Moisés Ramírez: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Moisés Ramírez: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ goals | 50% |
| César Huerta: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| César Huerta: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| César Huerta: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| César Huerta: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| César Huerta: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| César Huerta: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Armando González: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Armando González: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| César Huerta: 3+ shots | 50% |
| César Huerta: 4+ shots | 50% |
| César Huerta: 5+ shots | 50% |
| César Huerta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Armando González: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enner Valencia: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Enner Valencia: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Santiago Giménez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| César Huerta: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Enner Valencia: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Alexis Vega: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Carlos Acevedo: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Carlos Acevedo: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Carlos Acevedo: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Moisés Ramírez: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Moisés Ramírez: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Enner Valencia: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Enner Valencia: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ assists | 43% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Armando González: 2+ goals | 33% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ shots | 27% |
| César Huerta: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Armando González: 2+ assists | 18% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ assists | 18% |
| Alexis Vega: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| César Huerta: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Alexis Vega: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Alexis Vega: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Armando González: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ goals | 13% |
| César Huerta: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Enner Valencia: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Enner Valencia: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Enner Valencia: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Enner Valencia: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Enner Valencia: 2+ assists | 0% |
Market context
The Mexico vs. Ecuador - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Mexico and Ecuador, scheduled for June 30 at 9:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares Mexico vs. Ecuador - Player Props specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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