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Mexico vs. Ecuador - Player Props

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "Mexico vs. Ecuador - Player Props" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots 100% Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals 100% Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals 100% Julián Quiñones: 1+ assists 100% Volume: $182K Liquidity: $109K Closes: 1 Jul 2026
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Mexico vs. Ecuador - Player Props

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots100%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals100%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals100%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ assists100%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots93%
Jordy Caicedo: 1+ shots53%
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots52%
Raúl Jiménez: 4+ shots52%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots51%
Armando González: 2+ shots51%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals + assists51%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots on target51%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots on target51%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals + assists51%
Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals + assists51%
Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ shots50%
César Huerta: 1+ shots50%
César Huerta: 2+ shots50%
Guillermo Martínez: 1+ shots50%
Guillermo Martínez: 2+ shots50%
Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ shots50%
Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ shots50%
Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots50%
Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ shots50%
Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ shots50%
Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots50%
Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots50%
Alexis Vega: 1+ assists50%
Armando González: 1+ assists50%
Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ assists50%
Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots on target50%
Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots on target50%
Alexis Vega: 1+ goals + assists50%
Alexis Vega: 2+ goals + assists50%
Alexis Vega: 4+ goals + assists50%
Armando González: 1+ goals + assists50%
Armando González: 2+ goals + assists50%
Armando González: 3+ goals + assists50%
Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ goals + assists50%
Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ goals + assists50%
Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ goals + assists50%
Brian Gutiérrez: 4+ goals + assists50%
Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ goals + assists50%
Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ goals + assists50%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals + assists50%
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals + assists50%
Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals + assists50%
Santiago Giménez: 2+ goals + assists50%
Armando González: 1+ shots50%
Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots on target50%
Alexis Vega: 1+ goals50%
Armando González: 1+ goals50%
Guillermo Martínez: 1+ goals50%
Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ goals50%
Carlos Acevedo: 2+ saves50%
Moisés Ramírez: 3+ saves50%
Moisés Ramírez: 4+ saves50%
Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ goals50%
César Huerta: 1+ goals50%
Alexis Vega: 1+ shots50%
Alexis Vega: 2+ shots50%
Jordy Caicedo: 3+ shots on target50%
Guillermo Martínez: 1+ assists50%
Julián Quiñones: 2+ assists50%
Santiago Giménez: 1+ assists50%
Alexis Vega: 1+ shots on target50%
Alexis Vega: 2+ shots on target50%
Armando González: 1+ shots on target50%
Armando González: 2+ shots on target50%
Armando González: 3+ shots on target50%
Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ shots on target50%
Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ shots on target50%
César Huerta: 1+ shots on target50%
César Huerta: 2+ shots on target50%
Guillermo Martínez: 1+ shots on target50%
Guillermo Martínez: 2+ shots on target50%
Guillermo Martínez: 3+ shots on target50%
Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ shots on target50%
Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ shots on target50%
Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots on target50%
Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots on target50%
Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ shots on target50%
Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ shots on target50%
Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ shots on target50%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots on target50%
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots on target50%
César Huerta: 1+ goals + assists50%
César Huerta: 2+ goals + assists50%
César Huerta: 3+ goals + assists50%
Guillermo Martínez: 1+ goals + assists50%
Guillermo Martínez: 2+ goals + assists50%
Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ goals + assists50%
Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ goals + assists50%
Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals + assists50%
Alexis Vega: 3+ shots50%
Alexis Vega: 4+ shots50%
Alexis Vega: 5+ shots50%
Armando González: 3+ shots50%
Armando González: 4+ shots50%
Armando González: 5+ shots50%
Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ shots50%
Brian Gutiérrez: 4+ shots50%
Brian Gutiérrez: 5+ shots50%
Guillermo Martínez: 3+ shots50%
Guillermo Martínez: 4+ shots50%
Guillermo Martínez: 5+ shots50%
Jordy Caicedo: 2+ shots50%
Jordy Caicedo: 3+ shots50%
Jordy Caicedo: 4+ shots50%
Jordy Caicedo: 5+ shots50%
Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots50%
Julián Quiñones: 5+ shots50%
Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ shots50%
Kevin Rodríguez: 4+ shots50%
Kevin Rodríguez: 5+ shots50%
Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots50%
Santiago Giménez: 4+ shots50%
Santiago Giménez: 5+ shots50%
Alexis Vega: 3+ shots on target50%
Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ shots on target50%
Enner Valencia: 1+ shots on target50%
Enner Valencia: 2+ shots on target50%
Enner Valencia: 3+ shots on target50%
Enner Valencia: 4+ shots on target50%
Jordy Caicedo: 1+ shots on target50%
Jordy Caicedo: 2+ shots on target50%
Raúl Jiménez: 4+ shots on target50%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals + assists50%
Enner Valencia: 2+ goals + assists50%
Enner Valencia: 3+ goals + assists50%
Enner Valencia: 4+ goals + assists50%
Jordy Caicedo: 1+ goals + assists50%
Jordy Caicedo: 2+ goals + assists50%
Jordy Caicedo: 3+ goals + assists50%
Jordy Caicedo: 4+ goals + assists50%
César Huerta: 3+ shots50%
César Huerta: 4+ shots50%
César Huerta: 5+ shots50%
César Huerta: 3+ shots on target50%
Santiago Giménez: 4+ shots on target50%
Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots on target50%
Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ shots on target50%
Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ shots50%
Jeremy Arévalo: 4+ shots50%
Jeremy Arévalo: 5+ shots50%
Armando González: 4+ goals + assists49%
Guillermo Martínez: 3+ goals + assists49%
Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ goals + assists49%
Julián Quiñones: 4+ goals + assists49%
Enner Valencia: 2+ shots49%
Enner Valencia: 5+ shots49%
Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots49%
Raúl Jiménez: 5+ shots49%
Santiago Giménez: 4+ goals + assists48%
César Huerta: 4+ goals + assists48%
Guillermo Martínez: 4+ goals + assists48%
Jeremy Arévalo: 4+ goals + assists48%
Enner Valencia: 1+ shots48%
Alexis Vega: 3+ goals + assists47%
Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ goals + assists47%
Kevin Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists47%
Raúl Jiménez: 4+ goals + assists47%
Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals + assists47%
Carlos Acevedo: 3+ saves47%
Carlos Acevedo: 4+ saves47%
Carlos Acevedo: 5+ saves47%
Moisés Ramírez: 2+ saves47%
Moisés Ramírez: 5+ saves47%
Enner Valencia: 3+ shots47%
Enner Valencia: 4+ shots47%
Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ assists43%
Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals41%
Armando González: 2+ goals33%
Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ shots27%
César Huerta: 1+ assists22%
Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ assists21%
Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ assists21%
Jordy Caicedo: 1+ assists21%
Armando González: 2+ assists18%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ assists18%
Alexis Vega: 2+ assists13%
Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ assists13%
César Huerta: 2+ assists13%
Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ goals13%
Alexis Vega: 3+ goals13%
Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ goals13%
Alexis Vega: 2+ goals13%
Armando González: 3+ goals13%
Guillermo Martínez: 2+ goals13%
Guillermo Martínez: 3+ goals13%
Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ goals13%
Jordy Caicedo: 2+ goals13%
Jordy Caicedo: 3+ goals13%
Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals13%
Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ goals13%
Santiago Giménez: 2+ goals13%
Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals13%
Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ goals13%
César Huerta: 2+ goals13%
Guillermo Martínez: 2+ assists13%
Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ assists13%
Santiago Giménez: 2+ assists13%
Jordy Caicedo: 2+ assists13%
Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals10%
Jordy Caicedo: 1+ goals9%
Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ goals7%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ assists1%
Enner Valencia: 3+ goals0%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals0%
Enner Valencia: 2+ goals0%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals0%
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals0%
Enner Valencia: 1+ assists0%
Enner Valencia: 2+ assists0%

Market context

The Mexico vs. Ecuador - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Mexico and Ecuador, scheduled for June 30 at 9:00 PM ET.

Methodology

This page compares Mexico vs. Ecuador - Player Props specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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