Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 81% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots | 75% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots | 72% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 68% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ shots | 67% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots on target | 65% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 60% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots | 59% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 55% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots | 54% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 43% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 40% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots | 36% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ shots | 35% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals | 34% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 34% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots on target | 34% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals + assists | 34% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ shots | 32% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 29% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ shots on target | 29% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 28% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ shots on target | 28% |
| Diogo Costa: 4+ saves | 28% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 25% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 25% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 23% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 21% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots on target | 20% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ferrán Torres: 5+ shots | 13% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 5+ shots | 12% |
| João Félix: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Nico Williams: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 8% |
| João Félix: 5+ shots | 6% |
| João Félix: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ goals | 5% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals | 2% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals | 1% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, portugal vs. spain - player props stands at 92% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Spain, scheduled for July 6 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We read Portugal vs. Spain - Player Props from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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