Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 99% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 99% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 90% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 53% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Edin Džeko: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Chris Brady: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Tim Weah: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 2+ saves | 46% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 42% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ assists | 25% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ assists | 25% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 18% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, united states vs. bosnia and herzegovina - player props stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina, scheduled for July 1 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We read United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Player Props from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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