Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover | 0% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to swedish open, qualification: roberto carballes baena vs carlos sanchez jover. This market refers to the tennis match between Roberto Carballes Baena and Carlos Sanchez Jover in the Swedish Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market wi…
Methodology
This page compares Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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