Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Juan Pablo Ficovich | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to newport: alexis galarneau vs juan pablo ficovich. This market refers to the tennis match between Alexis Galarneau and Juan Pablo Ficovich in the Newport, originally scheduled for July 7, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexis Galarn…
Methodology
This page compares Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Juan Pablo Ficovich specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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