Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Game Spread +/-4.5 | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, phan thiet 3: cruz hewitt vs timofei derepasko stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Cruz Hewitt and Timofei Derepasko in the Phan Thiet 3, originally scheduled for September 9, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will res…
Methodology
We read Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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