Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Alexei Popyrin vs Thanasi Kokkinakis | 100% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Alexei Popyrin vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Alexei Popyrin vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Alexei Popyrin vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Alexei Popyrin vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Alexei Popyrin vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Alexei Popyrin vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Alexei Popyrin vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Alexei Popyrin vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Alexei Popyrin vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Alexei Popyrin vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Alexei Popyrin vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Alexei Popyrin vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Alexei Popyrin vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Alexei Popyrin vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to canadian open, qualification: alexei popyrin vs thanasi kokkinakis. This market refers to the tennis match between Alexei Popyrin and Thanasi Kokkinakis in the Canadian Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
We read Canadian Open, Qualification: Alexei Popyrin vs Thanasi Kokkinakis from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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