Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to mubadala citi dc open, qualification: trevor svajda vs elias ymer. This market refers to the tennis match between Trevor Svajda and Elias Ymer in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 2:30PM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
This page compares Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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