Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread: Iowa (-31.5) | 100% |
| Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| Spread -10.5 | 100% |
| Spread -13.5 | 100% |
| Spread -14.5 | 100% |
| Spread -16.5 | 100% |
| Spread -17.5 | 100% |
| Spread -20.5 | 100% |
| Spread -21.5 | 100% |
| Spread -24.5 | 100% |
| Spread -27.5 | 100% |
| Spread -34.5 | 100% |
| O/U 25.5 | 100% |
| O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| O/U 31.5 | 100% |
| O/U 33.5 | 100% |
| O/U 35.5 | 100% |
| O/U 37.5 | 100% |
| O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -12.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| Iowa O/U 31.5 | 100% |
| Iowa O/U 34.5 | 100% |
| Iowa O/U 37.5 | 100% |
| Iowa 1H O/U 18.5 | 100% |
| Iowa 1H O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| Iowa 1H O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 100% |
| Kamari Moulton: Anytime Touchdown | 100% |
| Xavier Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 100% |
| Tony Diaz: Anytime Touchdown | 100% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Iowa O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jeremy Hecklinski: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Evan James: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Hank Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Northern Illinois vs. Iowa | 0% |
| O/U 45.5 | 0% |
| O/U 46.5 | 0% |
| O/U 44.5 | 0% |
| O/U 41.5 | 0% |
| O/U 43.5 | 0% |
| O/U 47.5 | 0% |
| O/U 49.5 | 0% |
| O/U 51.5 | 0% |
| O/U 53.5 | 0% |
| O/U 55.5 | 0% |
| O/U 57.5 | 0% |
| O/U 59.5 | 0% |
| O/U 61.5 | 0% |
| O/U 63.5 | 0% |
| O/U 65.5 | 0% |
| 2H Moneyline | 0% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -15.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| Iowa O/U 40.5 | 0% |
| Iowa O/U 43.5 | 0% |
| Northern Illinois O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Northern Illinois O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Northern Illinois O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| Northern Illinois O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Northern Illinois O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Northern Illinois 1H O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Northern Illinois 1H O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Northern Illinois 1H O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Iowa 2H O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Iowa 2H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Iowa 2H O/U 18.5 | 0% |
| Northern Illinois 2H O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Northern Illinois 2H O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| Northern Illinois O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| L.J. Phillips Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Reece Vander Zee: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| DJ Vonnahme: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Telly Johnson Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Taron Dickens: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Addison Ostrenga: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| DeAree Rogers: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Elijah Porter: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Dayton Howard: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Cam Thompson: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Romelo Ware: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Jason Fowler: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| George Dimopoulos: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Rickey Taylor Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Glen Weber: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of northern illinois vs. iowa. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 4:15PM ET: If Northern Illinois wins, the market will resolve to "Northern Illinois". If Iowa wins, the market w…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $67K.
Methodology
This page compares Northern Illinois vs. Iowa specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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