Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
69% | 31% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
69% | 31% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 69% |
| Match Winner | 69% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 63% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 61% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs Lynn Vision (+3.5) | 60% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 52% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs Lynn Vision (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Lynn Vision (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map Handicap: LVG (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Winner | 39% |
| Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5) | 28% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs Lynn Vision (+3.5) | 26% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 25% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-6.5) vs Lynn Vision (+6.5) | 25% |
Market context
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage — current market-implied probability: 69%. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between B8 and Lynn Vision in the XSE Pro League Group Stage, initially scheduled for July 4 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "B8" if B…
Methodology
This page compares Counter-Strike: B8 vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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