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Dota 2: 1win vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival

Cross-platform snapshot for "Dota 2: 1win vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

Game 1 Winner 100% O/U 2.5 Games 100% Any Player Ultra Kill 99% First Blood in Game 1? 90% Volume: $1.1M Liquidity: $988K Closes: 15 Jul 2026
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Dota 2: 1win vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 1 Winner100%
O/U 2.5 Games100%
Any Player Ultra Kill99%
First Blood in Game 1?90%
Ends in Daytime90%
Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1?90%
Match Winner67%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 3?54%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks10%
Ends in Daytime10%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks10%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2?10%
Both Teams Beat Roshan5%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?3%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?1%
Any Player Ultra Kill1%
Any Player Rampage1%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?1%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2?1%
Game 2 Winner0%
Game Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)0%
Any Player Rampage0%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1?0%

Market context

Market consensus: 100% chance of dota 2: 1win vs vici gaming (bo3) - esports world cup survival. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 2 match between 1win and Vici Gaming in the Esports World Cup Survival, initially scheduled for July 15 at 10:30AM ET. This market will reso…

Methodology

We read Dota 2: 1win vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

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