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Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffs

Which venue prices "Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffs" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? 69% Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? 58% Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? 57% Any Player Ultra Kill 55% Volume: $141K Liquidity: $728K Closes: 21 Aug 2026
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Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
69% 31% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
69% 31% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?69%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?58%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?57%
Any Player Ultra Kill55%
Match Winner53%
Game 1 Winner52%
Game 2 Winner52%
Ends in Daytime52%
Ends in Daytime52%
Ends in Daytime52%
First Blood in Game 2?52%
First Blood in Game 1?52%
O/U 2.5 Games50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan44%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?42%
Both Teams Beat Roshan35%
Both Teams Beat Roshan35%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks35%
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)28%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks28%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks28%
Any Player Ultra Kill27%
Any Player Ultra Kill25%
Any Player Rampage17%
Any Player Rampage10%
Any Player Rampage8%

Market context

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffs — current market-implied probability: 69%. This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket round 1 match between Team Liquid and Team Falcons in the The International Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 21, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET. This market…

Methodology

This page compares Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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