Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
65% | 35% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
65% | 35% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 65% |
| Game 1 Winner | 60% |
| Game 2 Winner | 59% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 56% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 52% |
| Any Player Rampage | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 52% |
| Ends in Daytime | 51% |
| Ends in Daytime | 51% |
| Ends in Daytime | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 48% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 48% |
| Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5) | 37% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 32% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 31% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 31% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 28% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 28% |
| Any Player Rampage | 26% |
| Any Player Rampage | 26% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 65% probability to dota 2: team liquid vs xtreme gaming (bo3) - esports world cup survival. This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between Team Liquid and Xtreme Gaming in the Esports World Cup Survival, initially scheduled for July 14 at 10:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Tea…
Methodology
This page compares Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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