Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| Netherlands O/U 0.5 | 75% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 75% |
| O/U 1.5 | 70% |
| Morocco O/U 0.5 | 67% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| Team to Advance | 60% |
| Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score | 53% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 50% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 50% |
| Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Morocco 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| Netherlands O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Morocco O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 25% |
| O/U 3.5 | 23% |
| Netherlands (-1.5) | 19% |
| Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 18% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Netherlands O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 11% |
| Morocco (-1.5) | 10% |
| O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Morocco 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 9% |
| Morocco O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 8% |
| Netherlands (-2.5) | 7% |
| O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Morocco (-2.5) | 3% |
| Netherlands (-3.5) | 2% |
| Morocco (-3.5) | 1% |
| Netherlands (-4.5) | 1% |
| O/U 6.5 | 1% |
| Morocco (-4.5) | 0% |
| Netherlands (-5.5) | 0% |
| Morocco (-5.5) | 0% |
| O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| O/U 8.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 90% YES probability for Netherlands vs. Morocco - More Markets. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 29 at 9:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We read Netherlands vs. Morocco - More Markets from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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