Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots | 100% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots | 100% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots | 100% |
| Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots | 100% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 100% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 100% |
| José Luis Rodríguez: 1+ shots | 100% |
| José Luis Rodríguez: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Tomás Rodríguez: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Dean Henderson: 2+ saves | 0% |
| Dean Henderson: 3+ saves | 0% |
| Dean Henderson: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Dean Henderson: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Luis Mejía: 2+ saves | 0% |
| Luis Mejía: 3+ saves | 0% |
| Luis Mejía: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Luis Mejía: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jarrell Quansah: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jarrell Quansah: 2+ goals | 0% |
| José Luis Rodríguez: 1+ goals | 0% |
| José Luis Rodríguez: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Tomás Rodríguez: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Tomás Rodríguez: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Elliot Anderson: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Jarrell Quansah: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Jarrell Quansah: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Jarrell Quansah: 3+ shots | 0% |
| José Luis Rodríguez: 3+ shots | 0% |
| José Luis Rodríguez: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Tomás Rodríguez: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Tomás Rodríguez: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Tomás Rodríguez: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Jarrell Quansah: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Jarrell Quansah: 2+ assists | 0% |
| José Luis Rodríguez: 1+ assists | 0% |
| José Luis Rodríguez: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Tomás Rodríguez: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Tomás Rodríguez: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jarrell Quansah: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jarrell Quansah: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jarrell Quansah: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jarrell Quansah: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| José Luis Rodríguez: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| José Luis Rodríguez: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| José Luis Rodríguez: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| José Luis Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Tomás Rodríguez: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Tomás Rodríguez: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Tomás Rodríguez: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Tomás Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to panama vs. england - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Panama and England, scheduled for June 27 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We read Panama vs. England - Player Props from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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