Türkiye vs. United States - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group D match between the United States Men’s National Team and Türkiye, scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET on June 25 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, with live coverage on FOX and FS1[1][6]. This is the USMNT’s final group-stage fixture, and both sides enter with identical two-win records, creating a high-stakes decider for knockout qualification[2].

Historically, World Cup group deciders between evenly matched teams with two wins each have produced a 30–35% probability of “more than 2.5 total goals”, aligning closely with the current 31% YES implied probability[2]. In the 2014 and 2018 tournaments, similar Group D and F deciders saw 2.8 and 3.1 average goals respectively, suggesting the market is pricing in a tight but open contest rather than a defensive stalemate[2].

Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements and in-game tactical shifts, particularly whether either side commits early to attacking full-backs or high pressing, which directly influences goal volume[3]. A recent FOX Sports report confirms both teams are expected to field near-full-strength squads, with no major injury concerns reported ahead of kickoff[1]. On platform divergence, Polymarket displays decimal odds (e.g., 3.23 for YES) while Kalshi and Betfair use implied probability (31%), and fee structures vary from 0% on Polymarket to 5–10% on Kalshi, with KYC requirements stricter on US-regulated books like Kalshi versus offshore platforms like Betfair[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Türkiye vs. United States - More Markets specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.