Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 94% |
| United States O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| Team to Advance | 83% |
| O/U 1.5 | 78% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 78% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 71% |
| United States 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 70% |
| United States O/U 1.5 | 64% |
| United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 62% |
| O/U 2.5 | 55% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina O/U 0.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score | 46% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| United States (-1.5) | 45% |
| United States O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| United States 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 33% |
| O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 26% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 25% |
| United States (-2.5) | 24% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 24% |
| United States 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 22% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina O/U 1.5 | 17% |
| O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 16% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| United States (-3.5) | 11% |
| O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 7% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina O/U 2.5 | 4% |
| United States (-4.5) | 4% |
| United States (-5.5) | 4% |
| O/U 6.5 | 3% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 3% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) | 2% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina (-3.5) | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) | 0% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina (-4.5) | 0% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina (-5.5) | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 94% YES probability for United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - More Markets. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 1 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - More Markets specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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