Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Pisa SC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Empoli FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Pisa SC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Empoli FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 63% |
| Empoli FC O/U 1.5 | 62% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Pisa SC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pisa SC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Empoli FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Pisa SC O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Pisa SC O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Pisa SC (-1.5) | 10% |
| Empoli FC (-1.5) | 5% |
| Pisa SC (-2.5) | 5% |
| O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Empoli FC O/U 2.5 | 3% |
| Empoli FC (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| Pisa SC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Empoli FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Empoli FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
Market context
Pisa and Empoli will meet in the Coppa Italia on 17 August at 12:00 PM ET. The market settles on whether additional betting markets will be offered for this fixture across major platforms. At 10% implied probability, traders are pricing a low likelihood of expanded market depth beyond standard match outcomes. This reflects the Coppa Italia's secondary status relative to Serie A fixtures, where liquidity and market proliferation are substantially higher.
Historical precedent suggests Coppa Italia early-round matches rarely attract the auxiliary market coverage seen in top-flight derbies or European competitions. Comparable August fixtures in 2024 and 2023 show that only matches involving Juventus, Inter, or Roma consistently generated derivative markets such as corner totals, card counts, or player-specific props. Pisa's promotion to Serie A in 2023–24 and Empoli's established mid-table status position this as a mid-tier encounter unlikely to trigger the commercial threshold platforms use to justify market creation costs.
Traders should monitor whether either club announces significant squad changes or injury updates in the week preceding the fixture, as these can influence broadcaster interest and downstream market demand. Polymarket's fee structure (2% maker, 2% taker) and Kalshi's regulatory reach differ materially from Betfair's commission model; Betfair typically offers more granular markets on Italian domestic cups, whilst Smarkets' decimal odds interface may reflect earlier probability shifts if institutional traders move first. Settlement hinges on platform-specific definitions of "more markets"—clarification of whether this includes live-only offerings or pre-match markets exclusively will be critical before the 16:00 UTC deadline.
Methodology
This page compares Pisa SC vs. Empoli FC - More Markets specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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