Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge | 0% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to itf w35 vigo women: celia cervino ruiz vs francisca jorge. This market refers to the tennis match between Celia Cervino Ruiz and Francisca Jorge in the ITF W35 Vigo Women, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ce…
Methodology
This page compares ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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