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LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

Which venue prices "LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Match Winner 85% Game 1 Winner 71% Game 2 Winner 71% Game 3 Winner 70% Volume: $108K Liquidity: $714K Closes: 13 Sept 2026
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LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 85% 15% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 85% 15% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner85%
Game 1 Winner71%
Game 2 Winner71%
Game 3 Winner70%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)70%
Game 4 Winner63%
O/U 3.5 Games60%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?56%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?55%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4?55%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?55%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
First Blood in Game 4?51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?44%
Game Handicap: C9 (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5)41%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?41%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?41%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?39%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
O/U 4.5 Games23%
Any Player Penta Kill10%

Market context

The LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 85% YES. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Cloud9 and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market will r…

Methodology

This page compares LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

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