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LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Which venue prices "LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Match Winner 98% Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) 95% Game 1 Winner 92% Game 2 Winner 92% Volume: $139K Liquidity: $467K Closes: 6 Jul 2026
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LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
98% 2% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
98% 2% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner98%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)95%
Game 1 Winner92%
Game 2 Winner92%
Game 3 Winner92%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)79%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?71%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon70%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
Odd/Even Total Kills68%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?67%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?66%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?62%
Game 4 Winner59%
Odd/Even Total Kills55%
Odd/Even Total Kills54%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon52%
First Blood in Game 1?52%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
First Blood in Game 2?51%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon49%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon49%
Any Player Penta Kill47%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor47%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors47%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors46%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?46%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?46%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?31%
O/U 3.5 Games21%
O/U 4.5 Games5%

Market context

Market consensus: 98% chance of lol: t1 vs furia esports (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 1 match between T1 and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 6 at 4:00AM ET. This m…

Methodology

This page compares LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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