Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
49% | 51% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
49% | 51% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| CF Pachuca 2 - 2 Club Puebla | 49% |
| Any Other Score | 38% |
| CF Pachuca 3 - 2 Club Puebla | 26% |
| CF Pachuca 2 - 3 Club Puebla | 12% |
| CF Pachuca 3 - 3 Club Puebla | 5% |
| CF Pachuca 0 - 0 Club Puebla | 0% |
| CF Pachuca 0 - 1 Club Puebla | 0% |
| CF Pachuca 1 - 0 Club Puebla | 0% |
| CF Pachuca 0 - 2 Club Puebla | 0% |
| CF Pachuca 1 - 1 Club Puebla | 0% |
| CF Pachuca 2 - 0 Club Puebla | 0% |
| CF Pachuca 0 - 3 Club Puebla | 0% |
| CF Pachuca 1 - 2 Club Puebla | 0% |
| CF Pachuca 2 - 1 Club Puebla | 0% |
| CF Pachuca 3 - 0 Club Puebla | 0% |
| CF Pachuca 1 - 3 Club Puebla | 0% |
| CF Pachuca 3 - 1 Club Puebla | 0% |
Market context
CF Pachuca and Club Puebla will meet in Liga MX on 17 August 2026 at 11:00 PM ET. The market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any outcome not explicitly listed resolves to "Any Other Score," a catch-all category that typically captures 40–60% of total liquidity in exact-score markets across major platforms.
Historical Liga MX fixtures between these clubs show moderate scoring patterns. Pachuca's home record in 2025 averaged 1.8 goals per match, whilst Puebla's away form produced 1.2 goals conceded per fixture. The 0% crowd-implied probability on this specific market suggests either extremely wide odds (decimal odds above 100 on Kalshi or Betfair) or minimal order-book depth at settlement. Comparable exact-score markets on Polymarket typically see 2–5% implied probability for mid-range outcomes like 1–1 or 2–1, indicating this market's zero reading reflects sparse early trading rather than genuine consensus dismissal of any single scoreline.
Traders monitoring this fixture should track squad announcements and injury reports closer to match day, particularly Pachuca's attacking depth and Puebla's defensive availability. Liga MX scheduling occasionally shifts fixtures with minimal notice; confirmation of the 17 August date should be verified against official league calendars. Fee structures vary materially: Kalshi charges flat 2% on settlement, Betfair takes 5% commission on net winnings, and Polymarket applies 2% on resolution. Early-market liquidity disparities across platforms mean decimal odds will diverge significantly until closer to kick-off.
Methodology
This page compares CF Pachuca vs. Club Puebla - Exact Score specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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